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Prediction for CME (2024-05-04T06:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-04T06:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30437/-1
CME Note: CME to the NE, only seen in STEREO COR2A due to an ongoing SOHO data gap starting at 2024-05-03T23:27Z. Associated with an M9.1-class flare from AR 3663 (N26W09) which peaked at 2024-05-04T06:19Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as an EUV wave and field line movement deflected to the NE of the region in SDO AIA 171/193/211. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-06T22:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 10:58
Radial velocity (km/s): 819
Longitude (deg): -15
Latitude (deg):37
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes:

Lead Time: 45.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-05-05T00:45Z

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